Field Note 01
Mental Model
Regret Minimization Framework
Project yourself to 80 and ask which choice you would regret not making. Jeff Bezos used this to start Amazon.
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Field Note 02
Decision Tool
The Pre-Mortem
Imagine the decision has already failed. Work backwards to find out why. The tool that bypasses groupthink.
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Field Note 03
Cognitive Bias
Confirmation Bias
By the time you are researching a choice, you have often already decided. Confirmation bias finds the evidence you need.
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Field Note 04
Cognitive Bias
Sunk Cost Fallacy
The money is gone. The years are spent. Staying because you invested is not loyalty — it is a thinking error.
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Field Note 05
Mental Model
Inversion Thinking
Charlie Munger's signature move: ask what would guarantee failure, then avoid it.
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Field Note 06
Decision Tool
The 10/10/10 Rule
How will you feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years? Suzy Welch's framework for breaking out of short-term thinking.
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Field Note 07
Cognitive Bias
Loss Aversion
Losing hurts twice as much as gaining feels good. Kahneman's finding that drives most risk avoidance — and most financial mistakes.
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Field Note 08
Mental Model
First Principles Thinking
Break the problem to its fundamental truths and reason up. Elon Musk's most applied mental model.
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Field Note 09
Decision Guide
Should I Take This Job Offer?
A structured framework for the career decision most people make with their gut and regret with their head.
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Field Note 10
Decision Guide
How to Decide on a Co-Founder Equity Split
50/50 feels fair. It usually is not. How to have the conversation and structure the split.
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Field Note 11
Mental Model
The Two-Door Framework
Bezos's framework for classifying decisions: reversible vs. irreversible. Most organisations slow down the wrong ones.
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Field Note 12
Decision Tool
Hell Yes or No
Derek Sivers' rule for eliminating low-conviction commitments before they consume your time and attention.
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Field Note 13
Cognitive Bias
Overconfidence Bias
We overestimate our accuracy, our ability, and our probability of success. The most replicated finding in behavioural economics.
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Field Note 14
Cognitive Bias
Anchoring Bias
The first number you hear becomes the reference point for everything that follows — even when it is irrelevant.
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Field Note 15
Cognitive Bias
Status Quo Bias
We prefer the current state by default. The test: would you choose this if starting from zero today?
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Field Note 16
Mental Model
Expected Value Thinking
Probability multiplied by outcome, summed across scenarios. The framework used by poker players, investors, and military planners.
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Field Note 17
Decision Tool
The 5-Step Decision System
The core framework from Decisions Matter: capture, frame, scan for bias, pre-mortem, decide and record.
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Field Note 18
Decision Tool
How to Write a Decision Journal
Record what you decided, why, and what you expected. Review later. The feedback loop that improves decision-making over time.
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Field Note 19
Mental Model
Asymmetric Risk/Reward
The best decisions have capped downside and large upside. How to identify and seek out asymmetric opportunities.
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Field Note 20
Mental Model
Second-Order Thinking
First-order asks what happens next. Second-order asks what happens after that. Howard Marks applied it to investing. It works everywhere.
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Field Note 21
Cognitive Bias
The Planning Fallacy
We consistently underestimate time, cost, and risk. The fix is reference class forecasting — not optimism management.
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Field Note 22
Mental Model
Margin of Safety
Benjamin Graham's principle: the gap between what you think will happen and what you need if you are wrong.
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Field Note 23
Decision Tool
How to Detect Your Personal Bias Fingerprint
Not all biases affect everyone equally. How to audit your last five decisions and find the pattern.
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Field Note 24
Decision Guide
Teaching Kids to Make Better Decisions
Decision-making is a teachable skill. The frameworks, the age-appropriate approach, and the conversations that build judgment early.
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